4 out of 5 risk level set in local area
By Edward Lynn
Editor
EAGLE GROVE, Iowa, April 27, 2025 — A dangerous severe weather outbreak is expected Monday, with the highest threat focused on northern Iowa, where a Level 4 (out of 5) risk for severe storms has been issued by the National Weather Service in Des Moines. Strong tornadoes, damaging winds, and very large hail are all possible, with storms expected to develop quickly Monday afternoon and evening.
Storms are forecast to become severe with little warning after forming, mainly north of U.S. Highway 20. Locations further south will still face significant risk, but with greater uncertainty. The primary severe weather window will be from 4 p.m. to midnight Monday.
Storms will be isolated in coverage, which makes exact location forecasts challenging. Areas under the Level 4 risk could see widespread severe storms, while most of the rest of Iowa remains under a Level 3 Enhanced Risk.
Across the state, forecast details show a 10–15% conditional chance of tornadoes across much of northern and central Iowa, including a 10% or greater probability of strong EF2+ tornadoes where outlined. Locally the risks are greater, and there is also a 15–30% chance of severe wind gusts over 60 mph and a 30% or higher chance of hail over 1 inch in diameter, with a 10% chance of hail reaching 2 inches or larger.
Before Monday’s major outbreak, scattered storms are possible tonight, mainly after midnight. The risk for tonight is lower, rated Level 1 Marginal, but a few storms could produce hail up to one inch across far northern Iowa.
The National Weather Service is urging residents to stay weather-aware and be ready to act quickly. Severe storms on Monday could move east-northeast at speeds over 50 mph, leaving little time to seek shelter once warnings are issued.
Safety Tips to Prepare:
- Postpone outdoor plans Monday afternoon and evening if possible.
- Have multiple ways to receive warnings, including weather radios, smartphone alerts, and local media.
- Shelter in a sturdy building if a warning is issued.
- Move to a basement or interior room without windows if a tornado is approaching.
- Do not seek shelter in vehicles or outside. No outdoor location is safe during a tornado.
- Bring an emergency kit (water, flashlight, first aid) to your shelter area.
More detailed safety information is available at weather.gov/safety/tornado.
MORE DETAILS
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